SHARING
A VISION
John Cairns, Jr.
Department of Biology, Virginia
Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, Virginia 24061, USA
I am delighted to have this
opportunity to communicate with colleagues in Russia. Achieving a lofty goal begins with a shared vision. A slowly emerging vision for the 21st
century is sustainable use of the planet.
The means to achieve this goal appear to be already available, although
we cannot be confident that human society is living sustainably until it has
been doing so for many generations. The
dominant global vision, at present, is the economic growth model; its
indicators are robust. However,
persuasive evidence (e.g., rising sea levels, depletion of underground
aquifers, extinction of species, loss of old-growth forests, etc.) is
increasing that this exponential growth economic vision is not compatible with
maintaining the integrity of the planet's ecological life support system. Economists are not impressed with limits
(e.g., Simon, 1981 and Simon's portion of Myers and Simon, 1994) and believe
that when a resource is exhausted, the marketplace will find a substitute. Ecologists, on the other hand, believe that the limits to growth that
affect other species also apply to humans, although our technology and
creativity permit us to modify the limits.
In short, economists have great faith in the marketplace while
ecologists are greatly concerned about limits.
Infinite growth on a finite planet is, ecologists believe, impossible.
Natural
Capitalism
Postrel (1998) divides Americans
into two categories – dynamists (change-oriented) and stasists (against
change). Stasists is a word coined by Postrel from the word stasis.
Along this line, the emerging field of natural capitalism (Hawken et
al., 1999) involves dramatic change to a new dynamic relationship between human
society and natural systems. These
authors assert that human capital, financial capital, and manufactured capital
should have added to them the realm of natural capital (resources, living
systems, and ecosystem services), since the first three types of capital
require natural capital to function.
Sustainable use of the planet requires protecting and accumulating
natural capital. To use an economic analogy, natural systems are the principal
and ecosystem services are the interest.
If the principal (for example, in a bank account) declines, so does the
interest.
Monitoring
Natural Capital
Natural capital, which is the
basis of our current economic prosperity, is rapidly declining. Natural capital can be both protected and
restored if there is an information feedback loop about its condition. This is called monitoring, which determines
whether previously established quality control conditions are being met
(Cairns, 2001). Although quality control
monitoring has been practiced in hospital intensive care wards, industry
production lines, and food and drugs (to mention a few), the protocols and
attributes for determining the condition of natural capital are in the early
developmental stages (Cairns, 2001).
However, once the need is perceived, development should proceed
satisfactorily as it has in the fields mentioned. However, getting the information is only half the battle. Arguably, acting quickly to maintain quality
with such a large system will require social changes more difficult than
developing monitoring protocols. As
always, rate of social change will doubtless lag far behind the rate of
scientific/technological change.
The
Current Economic Model
The current economic system is
degrading and destroying the natural system which, in turn, is exacting a
growing economic toll. For example, as
underground water tables drop, it becomes increasingly expensive to reach the
remaining water. The fatal flaw of the
current economic model is that it fails to include the costs of the damage that
the ecological life support system suffers.
The new field of eco-economics attempts to remedy this deficiency (e.g.,
Costanza, 1996).
The
Ecological Collapse of Civilizations
McNeill (2000) discusses the
unprecedented rate of ecological change in the 20th century and
characterizes the evolutionary course human society has taken as a giant,
uncontrolled experiment involving the entire planet. One wonders whether this accelerating rate of change is beyond the
capacity of our social institutions to adjust to it. In the new global economy, failure to adjust in one part of the
world is likely to have effects on the other parts as well. There is persuasive evidence that a number
of civilizations have collapsed, some apparently for ecological reasons (e.g.,
Tainter, 1988; Diamond, 1994, 1995). It
is difficult to believe that the inhabitants of Easter Island were unaware of
their impending doom. The island was
sufficiently small for each active inhabitant to view it in its entirety in a
relatively short time. However, the
inhabitants either started too late to reverse the ecological decline or they
were in denial about the outcome.
Although human capital is now expanding globally, there is a global
decline of natural capital. Was Easter
Island a microcosm of the present world situation?
The
Race Between Ecological Literacy and Ecological Catastrophe
As Wells (1921) remarked,
"History becomes more and more a race between education and
catastrophe." In the 21st
century the race may well be between environmental literacy and environmental
catastrophe. "Perhaps the ancient
civilizations collapsed because they mistakenly thought they had more control
of the rate of change than they actually did.
For example, the U.S. National Academy of Sciences recently published a
report in which it noted that drastic changes in climate are likely (as
reported by Alistair Cooke in the BBC Letter from America, Dec. 20, 2001). The conclusions were startling. Climate change may not be a slow, gradual
process but possibly may be abrupt.
Perhaps the decision makers of the past, whose civilizations collapsed,
were lulled into thinking that future changes would occur at the same rate as
the ones already experienced. When the
rate abruptly changed, the leaders were not prepared.
Causes
for Concern
The rapid, drastic stresses on the
planet's ecological life support system will almost certainly have unforeseen
consequences. As ecosystems and
ecosystem integrity become increasingly impaired, the probability of planetary
disequilibrium increases. Some
illustrative concerns follow: (1)
climate change, (2) topsoil loss, (3) rangelands overgrazing, (4) species
extinction, (5) forest loss at an estimated 9 million hectares per year (e.g.,
United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, 2000a), (6) irrigation-based
civilizations fail (e.g., Postel, 1999), (7) ecological footprint size
increases, as does disparity in footprint size within the human population
(e.g., Wackernagel and Rees, 1996), (8) oceanic fisheries below their
sustainable yield (United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization, 2000b),
and (9) environmental damage subsidies (e.g., Myers with Kent, 1998).
Causes
for Cautious Optimism
I remain optimistic about what
could be done to achieve sustainable use of the planet but am apprehensive
about what will be done. Some
illustrative causes for optimism follow.
(1) Europe and Japan have stabilized population size and China, with the
world's largest population, has a lower fertility than the United States and
may achieve population stability (e.g., Population Reference Bureau,
2001). (2) Interest continues to
increase in such programs as The Natural Step, which originated in The Natural
Step Environmental Institute, Ltd., in Stockholm, Sweden. (3) The precautionary principle ("when
an activity raises threats of harm to human health or the environment,
precautionary measures should be taken even if some cause-and-effect
relationships are not fully established scientifically") has been endorsed
(but not fully implemented) by a number of countries and organizations (4) A
shift is beginning from an environmentally damaging, carbon-based economy to a
more benign hydrogen-based economy. (5)
Many damaged ecosystems are being restored to some approximation of their
predisturbance condition. (6) Energy
saving plans are increasingly popular, as are solar and wind-generated power. (7) Recycling is replacing once through
"throwaway" material use. (8)
Grainland and water productivity have been increased substantively. (9) Aquaculture is increasing dramatically,
which may reduce the stress on oceanic fisheries. (10) Environmental awareness has increased, but decision makers
often have unacceptably low levels of environmental literacy.
The
Vision
The vision of sustainable use of
the planet seems impractical and utopian until one examines the alternative –
the collapse of civilization due to ecological catastrophes. However, in 1543 Nicholas Copernicus challenged
the view that the sun revolved around the earth, which ultimately resulted in a
dramatically different view of Earth's relationship to the universe. Making the vision of sustainable use of the
planet a reality will require collaboration of the planet's scientific
community, including those in Russia and the United States, to generate the
information necessary for enlightened societal decisions. Social scientists, educators, public
servants, and the like must then work to establish a new relationship between
human society and natural systems. It
is essential to remember that Homo
sapiens is not the center of the living universe, but merely a strand in
the interdependent web of life. The web
got along without humans for billions of years, and doubtless could do so
again. But humans cannot survive
without the planet's ecological life support system, natural capital, and
ecosystem services.
Natural evolution favors quantity,
from which quality is selected. The
only role of the individual in this process is to survive. The quest for sustainable use of the planet
is a form of social evolution guided by a vision. The role of the individual in this process is very complicated
and requires a strong sense of community, not only with other individuals in
the same species but with individuals of other life forms as well. Achieving sustainability will require
implementation of a shared vision. If
the societal process fails, we must be prepared to accept the biological
selection process that does not optimize sustained use by a single species.
Acknowledgments
I am indebted to Eva Call for
transferring the handwritten draft to an electronic disk and to Darla Donald
for editorial assistance.
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